Ponderings of the mind amidst the recession
Source: SingCitizen.com Retrieved 20 Feb 2009
Everyone’s been talking about how the world recession is affecting Singapore. It seems there’s no end to the bad news hitting us from abroad. Nobody knows when the avalanche of bad news will bottom out. Every few days, a new high-profile scam is exposed elsewhere in the USA. Such news impact us badly because the sooner the financial systems of the world get back to their feet, the earlier the business world, including the banks, can pluck up the courage to take risks again. And the rest of us small-timers can get back into the band-wagon to ride on any up-trends in the stock markets. This will surely kindle interest in stocks on a wide scale and lift up the markets which have been in the doldrums for many months.
We depend on a rising stock market for it spells good news to everyone — from the businesses to the retailers, from the professionals to the construction workers. A rising stock market means more money moving around. That encourages sales which in turn increases employment. This means more money to bring home to the family. With more income, there will be more retail purchases, people will find it easier to eat out with their families, and donations to charity may get a boost. Once the spin starts, we will be able to gettison out of the recession.
So is the rising stock market going to happen soon? I doubt it. The retail price of gold has hit S$57 per gram for 24K purity. The USD is hovering around S$1.53. What do these things mean? Likely that people and funds are finding refuge in safe-haven things such as gold and the US dollar. But, the US economy is in bad shape so why is the dollar not moving down? Perhaps, that is because people in unstable countries have taken to hoarding the US dollar instead of their local currency. For one thing, the US dollar is considered safer than most currencies in the world, and for another, it is acceptable almost everywhere in the world. Also, China’s massive reserves are parked in bonds in the USA.
One thing is for certain — squeezing credit anywhere and adopting protectionist policies are not going to help the world get back onto its feet again. We should learn from the mistakes made by governments in the Great Depression.
So, what of Singapore? The Government is pumping money into the economy to try to lift it. It is also giving some to help us citizens through the bad times. But, I can think of two areas in which it needs our help:
1. Not hoarding money: We should carry on with what we had been doing — go shopping, eat out, and take the kids out for a fun time. Spend money within our means and not hoard it.
2. Putting slack time to good use: If we are unemployed, we should make use of the free time to take up a course, and learn new things. Stop being reticent and get on with filling our free time constructively. We may even feel better when we are busy and so do not have time for depressive thoughts.
Of course, some of the money pumped into the system goes out to other countries, through the remittances of foreign workers and maids. But that can’t be helped, for ours is an open economy, with heavy dependance on foreign labour. I am sure the Government must have figured out which areas of our economy have got leaks and taken steps to ensure minimal outflows.
So, do I see a clearing of the stormy weather sometime soon? No lah. I think the stormy weather is in for the long haul, and we may not see clear skies till 2012, perhaps. But, you never can tell. With so much money being pumped in around the world, and with governments committed to rescuing their countries’ economies, there just might be a miracle in the making.
